Fri Aug 2, 2013 5:02am EDT
(Recasts lead, adds comments, details, shares)
MILAN Aug 2 (Reuters) - Italy's supreme court decision to uphold a tax fraud conviction against Silvio Berlusconi has raised questions over the future of Mediaset, the Italian broadcaster he owns.
The ruling raised the prospect that Berlusconi's role on Italy's political scene will diminish as well as his influence over the media sector, fueling speculation over future ownership of the 4 billion euro ($5.3 billion) broadcaster.
"If the price is right he could sell but I find it hard to believe he would sell his own creature. I give it a 25-30 percent chance," Ifigest fund manager Roberto Lottici said.
The court decision, confirming a sentence for tax fraud involving inflated invoices at Berlusconi's broadcasting empire 20 years ago, was the first definitive sentence the former premier and centre-right leader has received.
"The truth is this signals another step towards the end of Berlusconi's political life," said Bernstein analyst Claudio Aspesi. "It will be increasingly difficult for him to govern and this in turn basically means the political protection he has been able to give Mediaset in recent years is destined to wane."
Mediaset, which captures more than 60 percent of television advertising spend in Italy, has outperformed its market in the years of Berlusconi's dominance. But when the three-times prime minister stepped down in November 2011 in the euro zone crisis, critics said this advantage had lost its shine.
But shares in the company have risen 130 percent in the last year, underpinned by expectations of a recovery in the advertising market and Berlusconi's return to power as the party he leads joined the left-right coalition government of Enrico Letta.
At 0812 GMT, the stock was down 2.26 percent at 3.3 euros.
Shares had earlier traded higher amid speculation around possible ownership changes at Mediaset, which is 41 percent controlled by Berlusconi's family holding company Fininvest. Fininvest declined to comment on Friday on the impact of the court decision.
After embarking on his political career in 1994 Berlusconi left Mediaset in the hands of his lifetime friend Fedele Confalonieri and later his oldest son Pier Silvio.
On Friday Mediaset CFO Marco Giordani told CNBC that Berlusconi had no influence over the company.
($1 = 0.7557 euros) (Reporting by Stephen Jewkes and Danilo Masoni; Editing by David Holmes and Jane Merriman)
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